i stopped posting because it was a waste of time.

people talking about passing an economic stimulus NOW are a wee bit late.  action should have been taken before last summer during the oil crisis.  by knocking down the price of oil, it would have boosted consumer confidence and spending, probably averted some of the catastrophic deleveraging, and avoided the collapse of the auto industry (caused by high gas prices you ADD-riddled fools, not by the credit crisis).  instead gov't flailed around uselessly like a chicken with its head cut off.  well, duh.  it's easier stopping a boulder before it has started down the hill and built up momentum.

why waste time whining about a bunch of drunken derelicts too busy investigating issues that threaten the security of the nation, like steroids in baseball, instead of monitoring the housing fiasco, wall street, or fixing social security, medicare, energy independence, etc.?

large psychological component.  obama keeps talking down the economy.  worst crisis since great depression.  apocalyptic terms.  wtf is he doing?  he is intentionally overstating it.

i can only assume that he is being advised by vultures that want this economic crisis to continue so that they have more time to pick apart undervalued assets.  so, the rich are amassing their wealth for a big bounceback.  and he's also covering his own rear end by downplaying expectations should he fail - which is the worst thing he could be doing right now, since he is just driving confidence even deeper into the ditch that it's mired in.  good job.  i think we should start napalming cows in the next stimulus bill.

oh, the stimulus bill.  exactly what "change" is there in the bill?  it's just a big mac and fries super-sized.  same old same old.  just bigger fries and soda.  mmm.  super-sized.

yeah, i like making gov't buildings more energy efficient and weatherizing homes.  it's a good idea.  but ... that is supposed to "save" the economy?  how about legislating that we look through all of our sofa cushions for loose change, i'm sure every little bit adds up. =P

if you want to save the economy, this is how to do it.

1) don't pour money down fiscal potholes and financial sinks.  put it into the exact opposite - growing sectors of the economy.  accelerate their growth.  they are the TIP OF THE SPEAR to economic recovery and will provide SELF-SUSTAINING jobs that won't disappear when you turn off the funds.  bubbles are supposed to collapse.  don't waste time propping up goopy, soapy films.  hitch yer wagon to the engines that still can do it.

2) the reason some people voted for obama was because they wanted jfk man-on-the-moon i-have-a-dream type of big ideas.  instead they got big hotdog-on-a-stick.  and really bad poetry on inauguration day.  whoop.  so, the bloody-farking-obvious idea that people could have galvanized around, but is now the nobody-gives-a-crap-about-because-the-price-of-oil-torpedoed idea, was energy independence.

it still is a flicking good idea, you stupid flocks.  it's the big stick you can whack the economy over the head to wake it up.  build nukes.  boost coal.  drill more.  improve energy infrastructure.  this permanently boosts energy production.  lowers energy costs.  lowers production costs.  insulates the us economy from oil shocks and price manipulation.  frock the russians and opec.  tough luck, canada and mexico.  oh, wait.  it will never happen, so russians go do the sabre dance or whatever.

3) "change" isn't passing a bloated pork bill.  that's more of the same.  "change" would be quickly passing a smaller, no frills bill that everyone can agree upon without pork.

oh wait, but it's not big enough!!!  we want it to be a trillion zillion dollars!!! it's not going to create enough of a shock to the economy to jump start it if we're only spending a couple hundred billion! 

haha, passing a bipartisan bill without any wasteful expenditure would shock the hell out of everyone.  plus, you could say that you wanted to pass a good bill quickly that is different from the bloated junk of past congresses.  additional stimulus bills would be passed in the future - but again, only good bills without pork.  highly specific.  targeted only towards improving the economy - not blindly throwing money around like the money fairy hoping that something good happens magically by waving your money wad at it.  frankly, why not just load up cropdusters with twenty dollar bills and just have them fly over cities?  that will boost spending and then magically the economy will be saved by santa claus and his merry leprechauns that live inside shoes that have been stockpiled for these types of economic disasters.

a recap.

1) TIP OF THE SPEAR - accelerate growing sectors of the economy.  they create SELF-SUSTAINING jobs that won't disappear when you cut off funding (unlike infrastructure projects).

2) CENTRAL, BIG IDEA - not hotdog-on-a-stick.  real energy independence.  just fluking do it.

3) GROUND THE MONEY CROPDUSTERS - instead of passing big, fat, trillion zillion dollar spending bills that throw money around blindly, pass stripped down, highly specific bills.  it's a more disciplined approach.  <insert dominatrix-politician joke here>

4) SANTA CLAUS AND HIS MERRY LEPRECHAUNS - they will save us!

but of course, none of this has happened.  is happening.  or will happen.  because we are all idiots, and money fairies, santa claus, and his merry, shoe leprechauns do not exist.  the economy will have to recover on its own.  washington is useless ... just like this blog.

get in get out

ideally, that would be the best thing to do for gov't in these interventions. gov't may have stabilized the credit situation, but its continuing presence will have a disruptive influence on behavior.  institutions may hold off on major decisions because they are all waiting to see how gov't will act, legislate, regulate, boondoggle, etc.

gov't needs to hand off what it's doing back to the private sector - such as purchasing commercial paper - as fast as possible.  gov't needs to get in and get the heck out.

when you have a murky pool of water, by leaving it alone, it will become clear on its own.  the more you agitate the water, the murkier it gets, and right now, gov't intervention is agitating the water and making murky the economic situation.

gov't has to be decisive and clear in its pronouncements and discussions of future plans.  it can't hedge or mumble or shuffle its feet or leave options open in the future.  all that will do is stir up more mud.

a congressmen mentioned an "exit strategy" for gov't intervention - a VERY important idea.  list the plan and current actions being taken 1, 2, 3 as clearly as possible.  there should be a time horizon for when you will expect to terminate these programs, and how you will pass off these responsibilities back to the private sector when they are ready to stand up on their own against the insurgency.

also, i give up on gm, etc.  congress cannot execute complicated maneuvers.  heck, they can't even go from point a to point b.  so just let the autos fail or just give them $50 billion, no strings attached, and tell them to go away for two years.  if they live, they live.  if they die, they die.  if congress wants to drive us deeper into recession, fine.  let them do it sooner, so that we can get it over with. =P

the worst thing right now is for gov't to linger in areas where it's not supposed to be. be decisive. do it, be done with it, and move on.

against bailout
1 - unions too expensive -> profit margins too thin to be viable
2 - shrinking market - products last too long, too much productivity
3 - aig moral hazard argument, the world won't end if they fail, encourages future irresponsible behavior

counters
1 - unions made concessions 2010 (however, still short of Japanese competitors)
2 - changing / emerging market - china, india
   - tech jump - old cars swapped for new hybrids / electrics
3 - lehman -> the world does end

tech jump - ex. vcrs -> dvd players, tvs - flat screen / hd, vinyl -> 8-tracks -> cassette -> CDs -> mp3, etc.  however, ultimately, this strategy will fail because the Koreans will unleash their RTS Starcraft-honed resource management, tech tree, and microing skills with APMs (actions-per-minute) over 9000 and zerg rush us with cloaked dark templars.  wuh?  lame meme yeah yeah.  i've never played that game and have no idea what i just said.

also, i don't care about saving the auto industry. the main thing is, i don't want it to fail right NOW. it's an issue of bad timing.  people made similar arguments about moral hazard with lehman - the psychological shock was underestimated.  if the autos fail after the economy has recovered, and they have to merge or reorganize, i don't care.

essentially, we're paying a penny to save a dime.

i like chrysler's nardelli saying that they were burning 1 billion a month and then menendez asking for the exact same information 5 minutes later.  wonderful.

i'm not surprised that dodd has no problem with paying auto workers not to work. hey, we pay people not to farm, and we pay senators not to do their job either.

dumbest senator award - Senator Jon Tester of Montana who suggested the brilliant idea that if GM was making money in Russia and China, why did they need the bailout?  Couldn't they just use the profit from Russia and China?  What???  Tester suggested that the CEOs should all take symbolic 50% paycuts.  Great idea!  I think Congress should lead by example on this matter.  Dodd seemed to focus on executive compensation also.  Nice to see such enthusiasm!  I guess Tester really needed to empty his bladder - he meant that as a joke, but still, a weird and stupid comment.

Politicians don't seem to be great thinkers.  They have other people do the thinking for them.  I suppose thinking gets in the way of whatever the heck it is that they really do.  Oh right, getting elected over and over again.  That's all they do.

Nice to hear the autos mention technology sharing.  When they're cash strapped and fighting for survival, it makes more sense to collaborate and reduce some redundancies and consolidate knowledge and innovations - at least temporarily.  Then again, they probably just want to pass off the costs and responsibilities of developing new technologies to the gov't and just reap the benefits.

Actually, there is a reason why I could support GM, Chrysler, etc. going under in theory and having their carcasses picked apart, but the reasoning is my own peculiar one.  Basically, by keeping higher level structures more fluid and under strong selection pressure, you will not achieve the required stability to form a long-lived organizational layer on top of that.  As someone on the individual layer, I don't want too many levels above me because the higher up we get, the interests of the super-state become more alien and removed from my own interests, and my own individual viability becomes less and less important.  unfortunately we are also competing against other nation states and oh blah blah blah blah afjiewjf;alsbasdfjlkeijdlkjfladjf  oh enver mind.  actually i

3) Furthermore, what is the % of disposable income that is being consumed on an individual basis?

High gas isn't going to affect one person that makes a million dollars, but it will have a drastic effect on 20 people that make $50,000 dollars, right?