About Me

Name:m0t0r1zed
Biography
Loading...

Create Your Own Blog Find Other Townhall Blogs

Comments

Blog Roll

 

suspected al-Qaida attack in Turkey

Posted by m0t0r1zed on Wednesday, July 09, 2008 3:42:51 PM
 
I'm surprised that this kind of attack hasn't happened in the US yet, but with a suicide squad against a target of high symbolic value - such as a national monument, which would be less well-defended, or if they could muster larger numbers, a suicidal assault against an institution of power.  Hmm, not sure, but haven't really thought about it that much.  Some reasons floating around in my head, but ... dunno.
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

Bush - buffoon or great leader?

Posted by m0t0r1zed on Wednesday, July 09, 2008 3:23:20 PM
Funny piece from the UK Telegraph by Sameh El-Shahat.

Holy Cows: George W Bush - buffoon or great leader?
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

Liberals dubious of democracy in Iraq

Posted by m0t0r1zed on Monday, July 07, 2008 12:43:18 PM
Read an opinion piece by Lawrence E. Harrison for the Christian Science Monitor about his doubts about democratization of Iraq.
 
Consider what happened with US occupation in Haiti, Nicaragua, and the Dominican Republic.
 
He makes interesting points; however, I have to disagree with him.

These three examples demonstrate how good intentions expressed through military force and money can be frustrated by cultures that are not congenial to democratic institutions. The Bush administration's idea that "These values of freedom are right and true for every person, in every society" ignores the lessons not only of these three cases, but also of the more generalized problems of democratization in the Islamic world, Africa, and Latin America.

Surely past and present Bush advisers such as Paul Wolfowitz and Condoleezza Rice have read Alexis de Tocqueville's classic "Democracy in America." But they – and Senator McCain – must have forgotten its overriding lesson: When it comes to the viability of democracy, more than anything else, culture matters.
 
Japan's culture was more foreign to democracy than any of the countries mentioned (unless you believe "god-emperors" are congenial to democracy).
 
Ultimately, it was not about culture.  It was very, very, very, very, very simple.  Japan and Germany were vital to American security interests, and so America was more willing to put in blood and treasure for the effort to succeed.  Iraq will probably succeed for the same reason.  Iraq is key to American strategic interests in the Middle East.  Even Obama, who is the anti-war candidate, has stated during the debates that if conditions in Iraq worsened, he would put more soldiers back in to stabilize Iraq.
 
America did not want to get involved with the mess that is the Middle East for a long, long time, understanding the complexity, cost, and violence associated with long-term involvement in an area rife with dictators, religious extremists, and tribal divisions.  9-11 changed all of that.  The US essentially took on the direct role of policeman of the Middle East and began an active strategy to bring about change.
 
Also, one of the reasons why Iraq was invaded was because of culture.  Many of the neo-cons felt that Iraq was the most Westernized and secular out of the bunch, and so would be easiest to modernize into the Germany / Japan of the Middle East.  Culture may help foster native growth of democracy, but ultimately, force of will, power, and monetary investment are necessary to transplant democracy into a foreign nation resistant to democracy.
 
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (4) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

The invisible elephant of the Middle East

Posted by m0t0r1zed on Sunday, July 06, 2008 11:51:18 AM
It's strange how commentators often say that Iran is the big "winner" in the Middle East.  To me, that is just very odd - like a gigantic blind spot that cannot see the obvious.  The United States with its 150,000 troops planted in the heart of the Middle East, the nation that toppled two governments to the east and west of Iran, has somehow become a great, invisible elephant to some people.
 
The supreme hegemon in the Middle East is the United States.  The future of the Middle East will be shaped by the US, and there is no country strong enough to oppose the US.  The only power that could be a threat is religion, and the US tries very carefully to not come into conflict with it.  Syria seems to have realized this reality.  Iran, despite its bluster, is afraid of it.  The only people that do not seem to see the handwriting on the wall is ... well, whatever.
 
Although critics of the Bush administration will be loathe to admit it, Bush won two major wars during his presidency - and two very difficult ones due to the guerilla tactics of the adversary.  Mistakes were made, but the notion that wars should be simple, cheap, and easy is just stupid.  I guess I am one of the few people that still would approve of Bush, if asked.  I think he, as well as the rest of America, went through one of the most difficult and divisive periods in recent history.  It is understandable that people are tired and worn out from the past eight years, but I do think that history will judge him favorably.  (It's a bit annoying how that has become a talking point ... bleh. I was saying that years ago in discussions.)
 
Iraqis lead final purge of Al-Qaeda
 
Bush really did have to carry a huge burden.  After 9-11, the weight of the entire world was truly on his shoulders.  Imagine having to stand on the ruins of the World Trade Center, where thousands of Americans still lie dead and buried, knowing that the eyes of all Americans and the entire world is watching you - and only you - for guidance, strength, and leadership.  Consider also the followup anthrax attacks against the US, and the spectre of nuclear terrorism that must have haunted Bush in his nightmares when he slept (he is, afterall, human).
 
Just think about it.  What would you have done, if you had been in his shoes?
 
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

India's economy

Posted by m0t0r1zed on Saturday, July 05, 2008 12:15:25 PM
oil is hitting india hard.  not an economist (heheh, i repeat that a lot), but u would think that demand in rapidly expanding / developing economies is more elastic than in established nations, so the reason being touted for the high price of oil (china and india) should cut both ways. the high price of oil should put a hard brake on their growth.  india imports 70% of its oil, and its oil and fertilizer subsidies are costing them 10% of their GDP.

excerpt from businessweek article:
In the past month, India has joined the list of the wounded. The country is reeling from 11.4% inflation, large government deficits, and rising interest rates. Foreign investment is fleeing, the rupee is falling, and the stock market is down over 40% from the year's highs. Most economic forecasts expect growth to slow to 7%—a big drop for a country that needs to accelerate growth, not reduce it.

sauce: India's Economy Hits the Wall
 
heh, 7% growth doesn't sound that bad, tho i guess in this case it's relative.
 
as long as china and india continue to grow at a decent clip, i wonder if that will provide more psychological support for pushing prices even higher? 
 
i don't think drilling will help prices unless it creates a stampede by luck of timing. just guessing it might cause a short drop, but then speculators/investors/zombie pandas will rationalize that any real oil coming out from new drilling will take years or decades and push prices back up again. still, it would add to the mental stress of oil speculators / investors worried about when to jump out, heheh, and reduce the threshold needed to pop the bubble.
 
i really don't see the bubble popping until some major economies start tanking - or enough psychological stressors accumulate to scare off investors (approve drilling, pass regulations to tighten speculation, fed calls a meeting to do a magical dance and offering to the god of interest rates, Bush mentions opening up the SPR casually in a conversation while kissing Ahmadinejad tenderly and sweetly, demand for oil drops, china and india reduce subsidies further, OPEC does something or other or not or something, etc.). dunno. blah blah blah. why am i still even blogging anymore? ('''\(o,...,O)/''')  =^.^=  /\/\(';::;')/\/\
Tags: oil   India  
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

The Mother of All Bubbles!

Posted by m0t0r1zed on Thursday, July 03, 2008 10:29:15 AM
just wanted to say that phrase for no good reason. ^_^

coal and steel took a dive yesterday. wonder how that will pan out? recover and drop again? keep rising? interesting.

article about the rise in commodities prices from the monetary and currency pov.  written in the distant past of Jun 26 (less than a week ago) during the halcyon days of when oil was under $140. :p
When Central Bankers Clash, Stock Markets can Crash
 
also, i found this article interesting - especially the chart. for mentally challenged people, like myself, pictures help - and it has pretty colors!
 
 
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

merrily over the cliff we go, tra la la

Posted by m0t0r1zed on Wednesday, July 02, 2008 9:09:01 AM
 
CNN story - counterargument that it is supply and demand and not speculation based on IEA report
Speculation not to blame for oil - report
 
just some questions about the CNN article - some excerpts from it.
 
Since 2003, the volume of investment funds in commodity markets - especially oil - rose from about $15 billion to $260 billion, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which issued the report.
 
not important? huh?
 
this is the counterargument.

The IEA argues that if speculation drives prices too high, the market would be unbalanced. Either demand would fall off, or stockpiles would rise. Neither has happened. In fact, global demand for oil products has surpassed supply in every quarter since the fourth quarter of 2006, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Fast-growing economies like China and India are consuming more and more oil. Meanwhile, it's difficult for oil-producing countries to quickly ramp up output. The IEA also made the argument that many commodities - such as coal and rice - are showing similar price increases, even those without the possibility of speculation.

just thinking it through. dunno, maybe my reasoning is flawed. whatever.
1 - it's hard to adjust oil/energy usage quickly - lag time. also there have been signs of demand drop off in unnecessary things.
2 - oil isn't a final product. it's often the starting point for manufacturing other products. instead of demand drop off, you will just get cost added to the product or reductions elsewhere (no peanuts from airlines :p).
3 - evidence for this should be increased prices and inflation across the board (since energy costs affect almost everything) - which is what seems to be happening.
4 - oil isn't a free market system. nationalization, price supports, cartels, flying monkeys, etc. skew supply and demand.
5 - oh, also coal is going up because of high oil prices.
 
i could be wrong. seems to me people can be divided up into 1) people that know (or think they know) what is going on, 2) people that really don't know so flutter about (like me, i'm a pretty butterfly!), 3) people that know, but lie because they have self-interest at stake, 4) people that don't know, so by default support the side in alignment with their interests / ideology.
 
my hunch has been that it's speculators (even tho i like the whole free market thing). but i'm not an economist, and i don't have the time to teach myself about the oil industry, speculation, commodities markets, neat ways to game the system, russian energy mafia, blah blah blah.  to give an opinion that i was fairly secure about, i'd have to invest a lot more time.
 
so whatever. dun care no more. just following the story to see what happens and if my guesses were wrong, where my thinking went astray. and why i am idjiot. i suggested some simple ideas to implement for a quick drop in oil prices. but dun matter.
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (2) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

google wesley clark and world war 3 ;)

Posted by m0t0r1zed on Monday, June 30, 2008 12:51:52 PM
i'm not a fan of Wesley Clark. i remember reading this BBC story back in 2000.
 
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

700 pg historical study by Army on Iraq

Posted by m0t0r1zed on Sunday, June 29, 2008 10:57:25 PM
There's stuff in the news about the release of a new 700 pg. historical study on the US Army's role in Iraq.  You can order a personal copy from the Government Printing Office or download directly.  It's a big 103 MB pdf file.  You can download a free pdf file reader from Adobe if you don't have one.
 
I haven't read the study yet, and I'm not going to spin, shape, or select from it.  If you're interested, read it for yourself.  That's when the Internet is at its best - direct, primary sources without any media filters between you and the information.  If you're not interested, then that's okay too.  Your choice. ^_^
 
The Combat Studies Institute site where you can get the study: http://usacac.army.mil/CAC2/CSI/OP2.asp
 
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

An important message from Fred Flintstone about the oil crisis

Posted by m0t0r1zed on Saturday, June 28, 2008 12:11:03 AM
My fellow citizens of Bedrock,

I blame the current oil mess on the dinosaurs and their irresistably yummy, oily goodness cooked deep within the heart of the earth.
 
Thank you.
 
(Oh, btw in addition to coal liquefaction, a fellow blogger says that Raytheon has developed RF technology for extracting oil from oil shale for as low as $10/barrel.
http://theoilpatchplug.blogtownhall.com/2008/06/26/we_can_be_energy_independent_,_really_yes_we_can.thtml

So why is oil at $140 again?  YABBA DABBA DOO!!!)
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

hmm so i'm sure china is happy

Posted by m0t0r1zed on Friday, June 27, 2008 10:39:02 PM
LOL, financial speculation is funny.  I'm obviously not an expert at it.  No formal training in econ aside from basic macro micro nonsense.  Best I can guess at is looking at big overall patterns. Then again, I'm not an expert in housing or the tech sector, and it was pretty obvious to an untrained layman, like myself, that those were bubbles.  Same thing with oil.  Lots of games being played under the surface ... ah well.  Thousands of leprechauns spending lifetimes all running after giant pots of gold.
 
Anyhoo, just wondering how China is enjoying this little ride.  The dollar's weak, but China lives and dies by exports so it artificially has to keep its currency low to match the dollar.  Oil is bad enough in the US, so you wonder how China is dealing with it. Hmm, but they subsidize oil, so the braking effect on demand isn't as strong in China.  Kind of a double whammy.
 
Also, you wonder how overall demand for their exports will fare with high energy costs eating up disposable income and when inflation starts to go on the march .... A global slowdown isn't going to help.
 
China's economy is gonna grow, but less due to high oil prices
Interesting - high oil leading to rise in coal prices and coal shortages in China and plants idling turbines
 
However they are still exporting coal - though decreasing ... less by 4.1%
 
And gearing up for coal-to-oil conversion plants - which makes environmentalists none too happy (Environmental News Network)
 
article on China's determined efforts on acquiring oil - back in the good 'ol days of $3 gas
 
Interesting quote from Tech Review
Since China has very little in the way of oil and gas reserves, its future depends on coal. With 13 percent of the world's proven reserves, China has enough coal to sustain its economic growth for a century or more.
And first paragraph from BBC News article
Coal built China - and fuels its relentless growth today. Eighty per cent of China's electricity comes from coal, and there are plans for 544 new coal-fired power stations to meet an insatiable demand for energy
 
Last two articles focus more on clean coal and greenhouse emissions, but let's face it, the Chinese gov't place environment second after economic growth.  Oil speculators keep talking up China, but it seems that their economy is geared around coal. 
 
Ah well, it's not like I know anything in depth about this, but it's interesting to look at just out of curiosity and see how things eventually turn out.
 
Edit: I'm looking around for cost per barrel for coal liquefaction. The sauce that wiki uses is a 2002 article from Diesel Fuel News. Have no clue if they're reliable or not.  They say break even for China is oil above $20 per barrel, and $33-$35 for the US.  LMAO.  This can't be right!!!

Another key factor driving the project is China's interest in development strategic yet fairly cost-competitive alternatives to crude oil imports. While Shenhua officials believe the new project will provide a decent return on investment (close to 15%), this depends upon crude oil prices staying above $20/barrel.

In contrast, a similar project in the U.S. -- if ever attempted strictly on commercial terms -- would require long-term world crude prices to hover around $33 to $35/barrel, HTI's Lee explains. Such levels haven't been sustained for any lengthy period in world history.

 
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

Funny article from the Economist about short sellers

Posted by m0t0r1zed on Friday, June 27, 2008 9:27:13 PM
Funny how if we aren't mad at speculators, we're mad at short sellers.  I don't mind people hedging against the dollar or the stock market or inflation or whatever new contrivance or formulaic potion some new financial guru has concocted to make zillions of dollars in perpetuity.  Just do it without screwing up oil and gas prices and world economies.  People go to war over oil.  So scram. Go speculate elsewhere.

http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11591349
 
 
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (3) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

i'm not an expert - all i do is guess

Posted by m0t0r1zed on Friday, June 27, 2008 1:16:26 PM
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

fed ex converting to horseback and pterodactyl riders

Posted by m0t0r1zed on Friday, June 27, 2008 8:42:33 AM
i can't stand it. ever the glutton for punishment, i read this article about speculators and supply and demand ... latimes. urgh. ima just gonna take my ball and glove, go home, and not play this game anymore.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-lazarus25-2008jun25,0,2383398.column
 
it's hard for industries to wave their magical wands and sprout nuclear power plants and have factories run on wishful thinking. and fed ex will need some time to convert their fleet to horseback and pterodactyl riders.

so, oil prices will go up and up and up and up and up and up and up and up and up to 2 bazillion dollars per barrel... until u put so many fat speculators sitting on a donkey that you break its back and the world goes into recession.

of course, this is all just supply and demand, so oil won't drop in price since this is the sparkly new reality.  yeah, right. watch what happens to oil prices when the world economy goes under. oh wait, closed down factories and jobless people don't use as much oil. oh, you're right! so it is supply and demand after all! >.<
 
edit: correction. oil prices might plummet as speculators jump out just before we all go over the economic cliff. huzzah.
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

i'm bored. read my other blog instead

Posted by m0t0r1zed on Friday, June 27, 2008 6:21:33 AM
 
of course, i got bored there too and stopped blogging.  
 
anyhoo, politics is a waste of time unless u have power. also, people get distracted by the dog and pony show of presidents and congressmen when the true power lies behind the gigantic bureaucratic beast that is immune to elections and is perpetually growing and will eventually consume all in its path.
 
good night.
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive
« Previous123Next »