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Why I don't trust Biden ...

The one thing people tout about Biden is his foreign policy cred, but there's something about him that bugs me.  There are some people that know a lot of facts and can repeat ideas that other people have formulated.  Then there are people that can actually think critically and analyze facts on their own.

Biden has always struck me as the first type and not the second.  This is Biden's plan for partitioning Iraq in 2006 in a NY Times op-ed piece.

Unity Through Autonomy in Iraq
 
Personally, I thought partitioning might have been a good idea - if that was our strategy from the start of the war.  I was worried before the war about sectarian violence and my fears ended up becoming a reality.  However, since Bush pushed a plan for a stronger central gov't, the idea of falling back to partitioning didn't make sense to me.  To do so would have been perceived as an act of desperation - and their perception would have been correct. 
 
Also, it'd be difficult to impose a partition if the Iraqis didn't want it, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Kurds would have just said, "Screw this" and declared independence.  Bye bye, central gov't.  Hello, chaos. 
 
Iraq may still eventually fragment in the future, but trying to partition Iraq would have greatly accelerated the process.  His op-ed felt more like theorycrafting, than sound policy.
 
To me, Biden seems to mouth words and policies, but they lack proper sensibility.
 
Furthermore, Biden's strident stance on shifting troops to Afghanistan while the war in Iraq was going poorly would have undercut the efforts in Iraq.  It's sort of like someone saying, "Hey, I think your toast is burning" while the kitchen is on fire.
 
Dunno.  I'm not a foreign policy expert or anything, but that's my impression about Biden.  He never seems to be ahead of the curve, and he only seems to say things after other people have already said it.  Biden also didn't seem to be clued into Petraeus' strategy, or the fact that the Sunni movement against al-Qaeda had become significant enough to turn the tide in the war.
 
Now, I'm not saying that it's an easy task to predict world events, but given his position as chairman of Foreign Relations and his access to information and analysts ... I tend to expect more insight.
 
Meh.  I dunno.  I could be wrong, of course.
 
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Liberals dubious of democracy in Iraq

Read an opinion piece by Lawrence E. Harrison for the Christian Science Monitor about his doubts about democratization of Iraq.
 
Consider what happened with US occupation in Haiti, Nicaragua, and the Dominican Republic.
 
He makes interesting points; however, I have to disagree with him.

These three examples demonstrate how good intentions expressed through military force and money can be frustrated by cultures that are not congenial to democratic institutions. The Bush administration's idea that "These values of freedom are right and true for every person, in every society" ignores the lessons not only of these three cases, but also of the more generalized problems of democratization in the Islamic world, Africa, and Latin America.

Surely past and present Bush advisers such as Paul Wolfowitz and Condoleezza Rice have read Alexis de Tocqueville's classic "Democracy in America." But they – and Senator McCain – must have forgotten its overriding lesson: When it comes to the viability of democracy, more than anything else, culture matters.
 
Japan's culture was more foreign to democracy than any of the countries mentioned (unless you believe "god-emperors" are congenial to democracy).
 
Ultimately, it was not about culture.  It was very, very, very, very, very simple.  Japan and Germany were vital to American security interests, and so America was more willing to put in blood and treasure for the effort to succeed.  Iraq will probably succeed for the same reason.  Iraq is key to American strategic interests in the Middle East.  Even Obama, who is the anti-war candidate, has stated during the debates that if conditions in Iraq worsened, he would put more soldiers back in to stabilize Iraq.
 
America did not want to get involved with the mess that is the Middle East for a long, long time, understanding the complexity, cost, and violence associated with long-term involvement in an area rife with dictators, religious extremists, and tribal divisions.  9-11 changed all of that.  The US essentially took on the direct role of policeman of the Middle East and began an active strategy to bring about change.
 
Also, one of the reasons why Iraq was invaded was because of culture.  Many of the neo-cons felt that Iraq was the most Westernized and secular out of the bunch, and so would be easiest to modernize into the Germany / Japan of the Middle East.  Culture may help foster native growth of democracy, but ultimately, force of will, power, and monetary investment are necessary to transplant democracy into a foreign nation resistant to democracy.
 
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The invisible elephant of the Middle East

It's strange how commentators often say that Iran is the big "winner" in the Middle East.  To me, that is just very odd - like a gigantic blind spot that cannot see the obvious.  The United States with its 150,000 troops planted in the heart of the Middle East, the nation that toppled two governments to the east and west of Iran, has somehow become a great, invisible elephant to some people.
 
The supreme hegemon in the Middle East is the United States.  The future of the Middle East will be shaped by the US, and there is no country strong enough to oppose the US.  The only power that could be a threat is religion, and the US tries very carefully to not come into conflict with it.  Syria seems to have realized this reality.  Iran, despite its bluster, is afraid of it.  The only people that do not seem to see the handwriting on the wall is ... well, whatever.
 
Although critics of the Bush administration will be loathe to admit it, Bush won two major wars during his presidency - and two very difficult ones due to the guerilla tactics of the adversary.  Mistakes were made, but the notion that wars should be simple, cheap, and easy is just stupid.  I guess I am one of the few people that still would approve of Bush, if asked.  I think he, as well as the rest of America, went through one of the most difficult and divisive periods in recent history.  It is understandable that people are tired and worn out from the past eight years, but I do think that history will judge him favorably.  (It's a bit annoying how that has become a talking point ... bleh. I was saying that years ago in discussions.)
 
Iraqis lead final purge of Al-Qaeda
 
Bush really did have to carry a huge burden.  After 9-11, the weight of the entire world was truly on his shoulders.  Imagine having to stand on the ruins of the World Trade Center, where thousands of Americans still lie dead and buried, knowing that the eyes of all Americans and the entire world is watching you - and only you - for guidance, strength, and leadership.  Consider also the followup anthrax attacks against the US, and the spectre of nuclear terrorism that must have haunted Bush in his nightmares when he slept (he is, afterall, human).
 
Just think about it.  What would you have done, if you had been in his shoes?
 
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700 pg historical study by Army on Iraq

There's stuff in the news about the release of a new 700 pg. historical study on the US Army's role in Iraq.  You can order a personal copy from the Government Printing Office or download directly.  It's a big 103 MB pdf file.  You can download a free pdf file reader from Adobe if you don't have one.
 
I haven't read the study yet, and I'm not going to spin, shape, or select from it.  If you're interested, read it for yourself.  That's when the Internet is at its best - direct, primary sources without any media filters between you and the information.  If you're not interested, then that's okay too.  Your choice. ^_^
 
The Combat Studies Institute site where you can get the study: http://usacac.army.mil/CAC2/CSI/OP2.asp
 
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