Posted by
m0t0r1zed on Monday, November 17, 2008 4:33:13 AM
Ok, most people like to make crazy predictions that turn out to be wrong ... but keep on chugging along as if they've always been right, crashing into fences, driving over people, and finally accelerating off of a cliff, while merrily singing, "blah blah blah blah blah."
So, how has my driving been?
The Election
1) I got the winner of the election right - but that was an easy one. However, I badly misunderestimated the margin of victory. I thought the battleground states would be tight, but that enough of them would swing towards McCain very late to make the final tally respectable. Not. The day before the election, some trends started pointing towards my scenario, but it all fell apart on election day.
I blame Paulson. =P
If the economy hadn't crashed, the results might have been a little closer. Still, I should have adjusted my prediction after the crash, so it ends up being a crappy prediction on my part.
2) Media behavior. Pffft. Easy call. C'mon. Everyone knew the media would go gaga over Obama. This one was a layup.
3) And the final nominees are ... Hillary vs. Giuliani. Clunk! Thud! Although I never blogged about it, that's what I had expected. Then again, I never expected those two to run the kind of brilliant campaigns that they did. LOL. Seriously, what the heck were they strategerizing?
4) Oddities. When people were saying that Sarah was "going rogue," I started to wonder ... I had actually hoped that she would. LOL.
Overall: I think my predictions were pretty crappy or average.
The Economy
Hmm, this one is harder for me to be objective. Also, I lack the economic expertise to give a very informed opinion, so mostly I just guess and try to see broad patterns. I joined the "doom and gloom" bandwagon much later than others. It was when oil spiked that I thought that the economy was in serious danger due to the combined effects of all of the problems - oil, housing, credit, banks, etc.
1) I thought that oil prices would drop when speculators jumped out before world economies entered recessions due to high oil prices. Pretty much, I think I was correct on that. Others may dispute it though ...
2) I thought there would be stagflation. Bzzzt. Wrong! A little, but it was very short-lived. Oil and commodities tanked quickly when the speculators jumped out and the Lehman collapse accelerated the economic demise.
3) I thought other world economies would slip into recessions first and then the US would follow. That seems to be happening (I've always been using the traditional definition of recession - just to be consistent).
I think that if the US had driven oil prices back down way back in time around 1st century B.C., we would NOT have entered a recession. Consumer confidence would have risen, spending would have been robust, people would not have been pulling money out of banks and funds, the markets would have stayed intact, and the credit crisis would have been mitigated.
I believe that oil was the straw that broke the economy's back. With people screaming that high oil prices were here to stay and that we would soon be hitting $200 oil, did you really think that it would have no effect on how businesses were planning for the future, such as layoffs, hiring new workers, or expansion? Did you think that consumers were not going to change their spending habits when it appeared that oil prices would climb forever?
4) One thing I was worried about with the bailout bill was how the banks would behave. I think I kinda got a bit of it right. :p
5) The nuclear option to save the economy and fix all problems was never exercised ... such a waste. A simple solution to the housing glut. Afterwards, we nuke the cows and piglets like grandpa did during the Great Depression.
Overall: My predictions were mixed. But better than those dumdums that said that high oil prices were here to stay, or that this was price discovery. Ha! Looks like we've discovered the price for oil that causes a recession and economic collapse. Jebus. We ain't talking about widgets. This is friggin OIL. Countries go to war over it. Economies live and die by it.
Seriously, there is a limit to free markets - especially when it comes to national security. I mean, let's privatize nukes and discover the price that Osama bin Laden is willing to pay for one! Yippee! Let's find out how much the market will pay for ICBM technology! Let's auction off all of our military secrets on eBay! Let's sell all of our weapon systems to anyone who will buy. Step right up! Free market, baby! Jeez. Hey guys, let's also apply the principles of democracy to the military chain of command and make all battlefield decisions based on voting! Gaaaaaah!
This is this, and that is that.
Oil is tied to economic and national security. Different rules apply. The sooner we get off of the stuff, the better.
/endrant
Current stuff
EVERYBODY IS STEALING MY TALKING POINTS! Boo hoo. Q_Q (Nah, just thinking in parallel. Like the sheep that we are. Baa baa baa.)
Under normal circumstances, Obama said, allowing General Motors Corp. to enter bankruptcy, undergo a restructuring and then emerge as ``a viable operation'' might have been a preferred route. If that were to happen now, he said, ``you could see the spigot completely shut off so that it would not potentially permit GM to get back on its feet.'' http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOl_Qn1.A4Dw&refer=worldwide
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Saturday the House would provide aid to the ailing U.S. auto industry, requiring that the industry meet new fuel-efficiency standards, produce advanced vehicles and restructure "to ensure their long-term economic viability."
Overall: i am still relatively sane. hahahahah! i like checking to make sure that i haven't completely lost touch with reality ... yet. tho hearing pelosi mirroring some of my own thoughts is very disquieting. o_O"
hmm, just realized that this would be more of an end-of-year thing. meh. it's not as if anyone actually reads my stoopid blog. i mostly do this just to waste time. :p