Posted by
m0t0r1zed on Monday, November 03, 2008 12:02:44 PM
I don't think the national polls are as useful because of the insane numbers Obama's pulling from large Democratic states.
Illinois +24.7
New York +29.7
Massachusetts +21.3
California +24.4
That's pretty damn impressive! Compare it with what Kerry and Gore got from those same states.
Illinois +10.4, +12.0
New York +18.3, +25.0
Massachusetts +25.1, +27.3
California +9.9, +11.8
The good news for Republicans is that this probably skews the national polls for Obama by padding it with votes from meaningless, non-battleground states.
The good news for Democrats is that this is an indication of a huge wave of support for Obama across the board. If you look at McCain's state-by-state numbers, they're badly depressed from Bush's numbers in 2000 and 2004.
But ultimately, it comes down to the battleground states - and there it's a dogfight.
My prediction hasn't changed.
football analogy? wth... I still think McCain will lose. He might pick up a few states late, but I think it will go Obama's way, 278-260.
So far, the polls seem to point to this exact scenario with Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico all for Obama with +5% or more support. North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida are under 5% support for Obama, and I think they might break late in the evening for McCain after Obama already has reached 270 or has gotten pretty close to it.
McCain has a chance by picking off both Colorado and Nevada, or even pulling off an upset by flipping Pennsylvania - though unlikely, imho. Who knows? Maybe there might be another month of recount madness if some states are too close to call ... heheheh, wouldn't that be nightmarish fun? The two-party state will have achieved near perfect equilibrium, lmao.